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Fix noisy consumption alerts and make predictions adaptive

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This commit is contained in:
dadaloop82
2026-05-15 11:41:29 +00:00
parent 02964ecf23
commit 850c5047b8
5 changed files with 44 additions and 22 deletions
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api/index.php
+29 -8
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@@ -2132,9 +2132,9 @@ function getConsumptionPredictions(PDO $db): void {
$daySpan = ($lastDate - $firstDate) / 86400;
// If all transactions are clustered within a week, the rate is unreliable
if ($daySpan < 7) continue;
$dailyRate = $totalUsed / $daySpan;
$historicalRate = $totalUsed / $daySpan;
if ($dailyRate < 0.01) continue; // negligible consumption
if ($historicalRate < 0.01) continue; // negligible consumption
// Get the most recent restock (last 'in' transaction)
$lastIn = $db->prepare("
@@ -2166,16 +2166,35 @@ function getConsumptionPredictions(PDO $db): void {
$baselineQty = floatval($item['quantity']) + $usedSinceRestock;
$daysSinceRestock = max(1, (time() - $restockDate) / 86400);
// Recalculate the expected consumption with an adaptive rate:
// blend long-term history with post-restock behavior when available.
$txSinceRestock = 0;
foreach ($rows as $r) {
if (strtotime($r['created_at']) >= $restockDate) $txSinceRestock++;
}
$observedRate = $daysSinceRestock > 0 ? ($usedSinceRestock / $daysSinceRestock) : 0;
$dailyRate = $historicalRate;
if ($observedRate > 0) {
if ($txSinceRestock >= 3) {
$dailyRate = ($historicalRate * 0.45) + ($observedRate * 0.55);
} elseif ($txSinceRestock >= 1) {
$dailyRate = ($historicalRate * 0.70) + ($observedRate * 0.30);
}
}
// If the model predicts you should have consumed less than 15% of baseline
// in this period, the daily rate is too low to make reliable predictions:
// any single normal use will look like an anomaly. Skip it.
$predictedConsumption = $dailyRate * $daysSinceRestock;
if ($baselineQty > 0 && $predictedConsumption < $baselineQty * 0.15) continue;
// Predicted remaining qty = baseline - (daily rate * days since restock)
// Predicted remaining qty = baseline - (adaptive daily rate * days since restock)
$expectedQty = max(0, $baselineQty - ($dailyRate * $daysSinceRestock));
$actualQty = floatval($item['quantity']);
// Need at least some post-restock usage observations before warning.
if ($txSinceRestock < 2) continue;
// Flag if deviation > 30% and absolute diff > meaningful threshold
$deviation = abs($actualQty - $expectedQty);
$threshold = max($dailyRate * 3, 0.5); // at least 3 days worth or 0.5 units
@@ -2188,10 +2207,12 @@ function getConsumptionPredictions(PDO $db): void {
$pctDev = $expectedQty > 0 ? ($deviation / $expectedQty) : ($actualQty > 0 ? 1 : 0);
// "more than expected" is almost always a restock the model doesn't know about yet.
// Only flag it at very high deviation (>400%) to catch truly impossible values.
// "less than expected" is more actionable: user may have consumed without registering.
$flagThreshold = ($actualQty > $expectedQty) ? 4.0 : 0.30;
// "More than expected" usually means slower real consumption, not bad data.
// Suppress this direction to avoid noisy/accusatory banners.
if ($actualQty > $expectedQty) continue;
// Only keep meaningful "less than expected" deviations.
$flagThreshold = 0.45;
if ($pctDev > $flagThreshold && $deviation > $threshold) {
$unit = $item['unit'];
@@ -2220,7 +2241,7 @@ function getConsumptionPredictions(PDO $db): void {
'daily_rate' => round($dailyRate, 3),
'deviation_pct' => round($pctDev * 100),
'days_since_restock' => (int)round($daysSinceRestock),
'direction' => $actualQty > $expectedQty ? 'more' : 'less',
'direction' => 'less',
'tx_count' => count($rows),
];
}